Zero net energy building revenue projected to grow to $1.4 trillion by 2035

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2035 the world’s energy demand will increase by a third, driven primarily by emerging economies, China, India and the Middle East.  According to the most likely scenario, China is the primary driver for increased demand through 2020, when India becomes the primary driver. Greenhouse gas emissionsTwo-thirds of global of the world’s greenhouse-gas emissions come from the energy sector.   The IEA projects that energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 20% by 2035.Energy efficiency
Energy efficiency is getting a lot of attention these days.  Measures aimed at improving the efficiency of buildings have been introduced in Europe, the U.S. and Japan .   But the IEA still projects that  two-thirds of the economic potential of energy efficiency will remain untapped.  Government action is required to break down barriers to investment in energy efficiency including phasing out fossil-fuel subsidies, which the IEA estimates globally to have reached $544 billion in 2012.
Zero energy buildings
Zero energy buildings (ZEB) are loosely defined as buildings that generate as much energy as they consume.  But there is as yet no single standards body defining what a ZEB is.  Different countries and even within the same country different bodies define zero energy buildings in different ways.
The IEA has announced the Building Energy Efficiency Policies (BEEP) database.  The BEEP database collects information on buildings energy codes including minimum energy performance requirements that focus on achieving zero energy buildings, buildings energy labels which increase awareness about energy consumption of buildings, and incentives schemes for capacity building, technical assistance and raising awareness.  The database includes information from all IEA member countries as well as China, India, Tunisia, South Africa and Russia.
According to a new report from Navigant Research, global ZEB revenue is expected to grow from $629.3 million in 2014 to $1.4 trillion by 2035.
Nearly zero energy buildings in the E.U.
The European Union (EU) has taken a leading role in improving the energy efficiency of buildings.  The EU has mandatory carbon emission reduction standards, referred to as the 20-20-20 standard, which among other things requires the EU to improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020.  Another important objective is reducing its dependence on imported energy, which currently accounts for half of EU energy usage.  In 2002 the European Commission promulgated the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) which requires all EU member states to upgrade their building regulations and to introduce energy certification schemes for buildings.  About a year ago the European Commission (EC) proposed a new Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) , also known as the EPBD recast, which imposes a legal obligation for all member states to establish energy saving schemes, with the public sector leading by example.
Energy efficiency is especially critical for Germany which not only needs to comply with the 20-20-20 standard, but also to find energy sources to replace its (non-emitting) nuclear power plants that are scheduled to be closed by 2022.  In Germany buildings currently account for 40 percent of power consumption and a third of CO2 emissions. The German 40 year master plan calls for aggressive energy efficiency policies including new insulation standards and for all buildings in Germany to be refurbished in line with the new insulation standards by 2050, reducing energy requirements for heating by 20 percent by 2020 and by 80 percent by 2050, and providing tax relief on energy taxes to companies contributing to energy savings.
A major area of focus in the EU is “nearly zero energy” buildings.  A nearly zero energy building on average over a year generates as much energy from renewable energy sources as it consumes.  For new buildings, the EPBD recast fixes 2020/2021 as the deadline for all new buildings to be designed to be nearly zero energy.  For public buildings the deadline is even sooner, by 2018/2019.

Zero emissions buildings in Japan
Japan‘s announced mid-term emission reduction target is to cut Japan’s GHG emissions by 25% by 2020 compared with 1990, subject to international negotiations.  But Japan has said that it plans to revise this target in light of the Fukushima accident and presumably in light of the recent decison to shut down its nuclear power plants by 2040.  According to an analysis by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), the largest reduction will need to be realized in commercial sector, by about 27%. Residential/commercial-sector accounts for 30% or more of final energy consumption and has increased remarkably compared to the industrial and transportation sectors.  Energy saving measures for commercial buildings are urgently required, since the commercial sector including office buildings consumes more than half of total energy consumption in the residential/commercial sector. Moreover its growth has been more striking than that of the residential sector.
The Government of Japan put forward its “zero emissions buildings” target in April, 2009.  It defines a zero emissions building (ZEB) as one that has net zero CO2 emissions on an annual basis through energy efficiency and renewable energy generation on-site.  The announced objective ia that all new public buildings will be zero emissions by 2030.

Zero net energy buildings in the U.S.
The U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) requires that by 2030 all new Federal facilities must be “zero net energy” (ZNE) buildings.  On October 19, 2007, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) adopted aggressive targets for ZNE

All new residential construction in California will be zero net energy by 2020
All new commercial construction in California will be zero net energy by 2030
50% of existing commercial buildings will be retrofit to ZNE by 2030.

But mandating efficiency guidelines and regulations for commercial buildings by the Federal government has not made much progress.  In March of this year with bipartisan support the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Energy Efficiency Improvement Act of 2014 (HR 2126).  The bill includes several energy efficiency provisions to encourage commercial building tenants to save energy and to  encourage benchmarking and public disclosure of energy use in commercial buildings.  (I’ve blogged about six U.S. cities that have already mandated energy benchmarking for certain types of buildings.) Unfortunately the Senate’s Shaheen-Portman energy efficiency bill, which includes these provisions among other efficiency measures, failed in the Senate.
According to the New Buildings Institute (NBI) in a report “2014 Getting to Zero Status Update,” there are 213 commercial buildings with an annual footprint of zero operational energy in the U.S. and Canada.  In this study ZNE includes ZNE Verified buildings, ZNE Emerging buildings and ZNE Districts.  ZNE Verified buildings (or districts) have been documented to have met, over the course of a year, all net energy use through onsite renewables. The energy use of all fuels (electric, natural gas, steam, etc.) is counted and offset by production from onsite renewables.  Within this group of 213 buildings with ultra-low net energy usage are 32 buildings in the U.S. and Canada that the NBI has verified to  have achieved zero net energy performance over a year.  
LEED Certification
LEED has proven to be a baseline for net-zero energy strategies.  Of the 32 buildings that the NBI has certified as zero net energy, 15 are LEED Gold- or Platinum-certified buildings.
LEED is a system guiding the design, construction, operations and maintenance of green buildings. Worldwide there are more than 59,000 commercial and institutional projects participating in representing 967 million gross square meters (GSM) of construction space.  The U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) has released the ranking of the top 10 countries for LEED outside of the U.S. based on cumulative gross square meters of space certified to LEED in each nation as of April 2014.  Canada, China, and India each have more than 10 miilion gross square meters of  LEED-certified space.

Rank

Nation

GSM of LEED-certified space (millions)

Total GSM of LEED-certified and -registered space (millions)

Total number of LEED-certified and -registered projects

1

Canada

17.74

58.66

4,068

2

China

14.30

96.22

1,638

3

India

11.64

66.22

1,657

4

South Korea

3.84

16.61

242

5

Taiwan

2.98

6.97

114

6

Germany

2.90

7.32

365

7

Brazil

2.85

23.24

829

8

Singapore

2.16

3.86

91

9

United Arab Emirates

1.82

47.16

850

10

Finland

1.45

3.56

148

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John Jason Fallows

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